The Changing Face of Cable Ratings

by Dave Zornow

Here are excerpts from my June 1998 column for Cable Avails magazine. For the complete story and lots more on the business of buying and selling Cable Television locally and nationally, call Cable Avails at 303 837-0900. 

We've come to accept basic cable's rising share and broadcast's declining rating as an inevitable outcome of greater competition and more viewer choices. Broadcast executives now even publicly admit that cable is no longer a passing fad and that they see no end in sight to the ratings slump of the four top broadcast networks.

But very little attention has been paid to the cannibalization of established cable networks by the latest additions to the viewing line up. It's accepted that broadcast viewers are defecting to cable, but are the cable's latest entries taking viewing away from the original basic cable networks?

The answer is mixed. Certainly cable ratings and audiences have grown, but the ad sales stories for the biggest networks have changed over time. Today the network cable ad sales business is split into two camps. The original and now largest networks, which used to tout viewer concentration and efficiency stories exemplified by strong VPVHs, now talk about audience delivery as a strength. The middle tier and smaller networks have taken the VPVH stories as their own, replacing the positions once held by cable's original networks.

To demonstrate this point, we looked at cable network viewing five years ago compared to today. Four quarters where used for each average to eliminate seasonal bias (1st - 4th Quarter 1993 versus the most recent four quarters, 2Q 97 through 1Q 98). New networks with less than four quarters of reportable data were not included.

Ratings Roundup Now and Then
The top 1997-98 prime time ratings leaders would be familiar to a cable viewer from five years ago. The names haven't changed much, but their relative rankings and ratings have. Three of today's top Monday-Sunday 8pm-11pm networks have shown dramatic growth and three of the past leaders have recorded losses (although audience delivery in thousands is significantly up for all players due to subscriber growth). TNT's average 2.3 TV HH rating and 30 percent growth since 1993 make it the prime time leader over the last four quarters, replacing sister Turner network TBS which occupied the #1 position in 1993. A 20 percent prime time rating decrease for TBS drops it to the 4th position during 1997-98. USA, the second most popular basic cable network in 1993, holds on to second place despite a seven percent ratings decline over five years. The big winners in the prime time leaders are Nick-at-Nite with 68 percent prime time growth (from a 1.1 to a 1.9 rating), and Lifetime (76 percent growth from a .9 to 1.6). ESPN, formerly the third highest rated network in prime, dropped to sixth place posting a 15 percent TV HH ratings loss.

Most of the networks reporting prime time ratings in 1993 are up in the 97-98 standings. Nostalgia Goodtv leads the pack (323 percent, from a .1 to .6), followed by CNBC (150 percent, .2 to a .5), Learning Channel (136 percent, .3 to a .8), E! (65 percent, .2 to a .3), A&E (48 percent, from .9 to 1.3) and Comedy Central (.4 to .6, 45 percent).

Cable Newcomers Make a Demo Impression 
The impact of new networks added during this period - ESPN2, History, Home & Garden and FX among others - is seen when the viewing patterns of individual demos are examined. Comedy Central and VH1 were the top two networks for Adult 18-49 VPVH five years ago. They still hold the top two spots, despite suffering VPVH declines of 13 and two percent respectively. MTV, which formerly laid claim to the seventh highest A18-49 VPVH, drops to 17th place registering a decline of 21 percent in this demographic concentration. Where's all of the viewing going? Probably to new sources like FX (tied for eight place with TNT) and ESPN2 (fifth place). Based on the 1997-98 data, the 18-49 audience is sampling more choices and spreading their viewing across more networks.

The same story holds true when we look at Men and Women individually. ESPN2, unreported in 1993, is now the leading network for Men 18-49 VPVH. Comedy Central is still a leading contender in the #2 position despite losing 17 percent of its Male 18-49 concentration. FX, not reported in 1993, enters the race in the 8th position in 97-98. Of the top ten networks in 97-98 that were reported in 97, only two sources showed positive growth in this VPVH (The Learning Channel with one percent and TNT with five percent). Among Women 18-49, VH1 goes from fourth to first despite a four percent loss and CMT holds on to the second position finish while dropping 15 percent. The big winners among Women 18-49 are BET (from eighth to third, posting a three percent increase) and Sci-Fi (from 12th to fifth, up 14 percent). HGTV is planted in ninth place followed by FX in the tenth spot.

Among Adults 25-54, the big gainers in 97-98 include Sci-Fi (up six percent making it the #1 network for A25-54 VPVH in both 1993 and 1997-98), The Learning Channel (an 11 percent increase, moving it from fifth to second place), VH1 (up seven percent for third place in the rankings) and ESPN (up seven percent to improve its position from 17th place to tenth place. New players ESPN2 (#4) and FX (#8) join Comedy (#5 but down 15 percent), TNT (#6, up three percent), E! (#8, down six percent) and Discovery (a gain of one percent for the 9th position) in the top ten.

Three of the top five networks for Women 25-54 VPVH are new in 1997-98. Sci-Fi, up over 20 percent from five years ago, leads Home & Garden (#2), Lifetime (#3, down one percent), VH1 (#4, up six percent) and CMT (#5, down six percent). Court TV and E!, the former #1 and #2 networks for this demo in 1993, have "skewed" around with their programming to change their 25-54 sex appeal. Court TV, formerly the #1 W25-54 basic cable vehicle in 1993, has seen it's Women 25-54 VPVH drop 56 percent since '93 while it's Men 25-54 VPVH is up almost 69 percent. E!, down 21 percent among Women 25-54 since 1993, has also seen a big jump among men, moving it's Male 25-54 VPVH up 14 percent over the last five years.

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